In speaking with EIR's Harley Schlanger on March 19, market analyst Alex Krainer warned that the effect of the breakdown of oil and gas production and delivery due to the Iran war may be the "single greatest disruptor of the world economy in history." Krainer, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, said that while price hikes due to wars and other disruptions take time to have a knowable effect, the Trump-Netanyahu war against Iran is foolish on multiple levels, which may create a level of disruption which will take years to stabilize.
The biggest problem, he said, is that the damage extends far beyond shortages of energy resources. It affects agriculture, transport and manufacturing, while the inflation that it generates causes central banks to react to liquidity problems by unleashing a flood of liquidity, to monetize the debt. This can trigger a "commodity super cycle," leading to long-term price increases in commodities, building to a systemic crash.
This was foreseeable, he said, but was ignored by Trump and his advisers, who seem to have been driven by hubris and delusion in choosing to go to war, combined with an ignorance about the history of Iran. He endorsed the proposal of Helga Zepp-LaRouche that we need a rapid transition to a New Paradigm, but don't expect it to come from the existing establishment. He said that the necessary changes must come from an aroused citizenry, but they must be educated. As an example of total establishment dysfunction, he pointed to the European Union, which he said appears headed toward dissolution, similar to that which brought down the Soviet Union.
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