Tory leader’s sinking electoral fortunes show that his history of MAGA-style politics may be rubbing the public the wrong way
US President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and looming tariffs have become topic number one in Canadian political discourse. To some degree, Trump’s threats and insults have reinvigorated debates within Canada about nationalism, self-reliance, and Canadian dependence on trade with the US. They have also contributed to a shift in the momentum of Canadian electoral politics, throwing the Conservatives off-balance and pushing some wind into the sails of an ailing Liberal Party.
According to polling firm Ipsos, the Liberals have gained eight points since early January while the Conservatives are down five. The firm’s long-term graph shows a steady rise in support for the Conservative Party starting in February 2023, and a steady drop in support for the Liberals beginning at the same time. The gap mostly widened until January of this year, as Trump turned Canada into a rhetorical punching bag.
In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s tariff threat in December, it seemed the biggest victims were the Liberals. After all, the threat exposed rifts in Trudeau’s cabinet and the weakness of his leadership. Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland used the tariffs as political fodder to increase pressure on Trudeau and hasten his resignation before launching her own campaign for party leadership. As the leadership race got underway, the main candidates, Freeland and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, looked uninspiring and too close to Canada’s widely unpopular PM. The Conservatives grew their lead even more.
But in January, the tide turned. As Trump launched his trade war on Canada, the Liberal Party outplayed the Conservatives. In his February 2 speech announcing retaliatory tariffs, Trudeau stressed unity, stating, “We will stand strong for Canada… The Canadian government, Canadian businesses, Canadian organized labour, Canadian civil society, Canada’s premiers and tens of millions of Canadians from coast to coast to coast are aligned and united.”
In his own response that day, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre condemned US actions while at the same time reiterating campaign promises that sounded very similar to policies on which Trump ran. He used the phrase “Canada First,” spoke about the need for Canada to “take back control” of its border, and criticized Trudeau’s “dumb decisions” on oil and gas. Slowly but surely, the Liberals began eating away at the Conservatives’ once-dominant lead. (more...)
Will Poilievre’s pro-Trump past boost an ailing Liberal Party?
Canadians will heading to the ballot box this year.
— Ipsos Public Affairs (@ipsospa) February 6, 2025
The Liberal Party of Canada has gained some ground since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he’ll be resigning, but the Conservatives remain well ahead if an election were held tomorrow👉 https://t.co/RwjfdLybxY pic.twitter.com/OFEmL7W8lp
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